With his near sweep of the ‘Super Tuesday’ states last week, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is now essentially the official Democratic nominee for President. Kerry was the victor in nine of the ten states voting, losing only Vermont to the suspended Howard Dean candidacy. Other than losing in another candidate’s home state however, Kerry showed dominance across the board, with double digit margins of victory everywhere but Georgia. The withdrawal of John Edwards from the race the following day leaves only Kerry, Al Sharpton, and Dennis Kucinich among those still campaigning, with Kerry holding an approximately 80:1 advantage in delegates over those two.
Kerry, who began this nomination fight as the presumptive nominee
several months ago, slipped badly in the polls and looked to be a
dead candidate heading into Iowa. For reasons still unclear to many,
his candidacy somehow managed to resurrect itself, and steal Iowa
away from Dean; he then cruised to this point. One final challenge
remains for the ‘Comeback Kerry’ before he takes on President
Bush in November: selecting a Vice President. While the race for
Vice President appears to be largely wide open, several potentials
have emerged. They are as follows:
John Edwards–He is viewed as the favorite so far, due largely
to his surprising success in his now defunct presidential candidacy.
He is handsome, extremely charismatic, great at staying on message,
and is from the South. He was the only other candidate to really
challenge Kerry once the primaries started. However, he is relatively
inexperienced, did not have great fundraising success, and there
are rumors from the Kerry campaign that Kerry is not particularly
fond of him. The early favorite nonetheless.
Richard Gephardt–Also formerly in the race, but he dropped out much earlier, right after his surprisingly poor showing in Iowa. He is viewed as the most qualified of any of the vice presidential candidates to actually be president, due to his immense experience, having been in Congress since 1976. He was also the Democratic minority leader from 1995 to 2002. Furthermore, he is from the potential battleground state of Missouri, and would be of benefit to Kerry’s campaign there. His appeal, however, is seen as being rather limited, and he does not have the speaking ability or charisma of John Edwards.
Bill Richardson–The governor of New Mexico has emerged as a possibility due to his mix of the strengths of Edwards and Gephardt. Not as strong as a speaker as Edwards, nor as experienced as Gephardt, but has some of the qualities of the two, and furthermore, has executive experience, unlike Kerry, Edwards, or Gephardt. He is also Hispanic, thus proving the possibility of greatly increasing Democratic voter turnout in that demographic. His chances have lessoned following his announcement Sunday, on “Face the Nation,” that he would not accept the vice presidential slot if he was offered it.
Evan Bayh–Currently in his first term as senator from Indiana, he is a new entry into the national political scene. A very good speaker, and adds the regional appeal of the Midwest, which is the region of the country most likely to represent swing states in November. Furthermore, he has executive experience, as he served as Indiana’s governor from 1988 to 1996. However, he is a moderate Democrat, and it remains to be seen how Kerry, who is among the most liberal senators, would take to Bayh’s votes in favor of a partial birth abortion ban, and the Bush tax cuts.
Bob Graham–Governor of Florida from 1978 to 1986, and currently in his 18th year as Senator, he is also an extremely regional candidate. His 2004 campaign for President never got off the ground, and he dropped out before the first primary. He is, however, extremely popular in Florida, and could receive serious consideration if he could bring Florida and its 27 electoral votes along with him. A self-proclaimed moderate, who boasts of authoring several portions of the Patriot Act, his position on the democratic political spectrum might put him at odds with Kerry. His history of heart problems could lead to palpitating debates between him and Dick Cheney.
Wesley Clark–He was a late entrant into the presidential race, and managed to win the Oklahoma primary before dropping out following his third place finishes in Tennessee and Virginia. Was the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO from 1997 to 2000 and among the most decorated generals since Eisenhower. Impeccable academic credentials, with three masters degrees, and he was also a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford. He is, however, a political novice, as evidenced by several serious mistakes made during his candidacy. Not on level with Edwards or Bayh as far as speaking goes either, but is from Arkansas (2000: Bush 50%, Gore 45%)and could add some regional appeal to the ticket.
Other names which have received mention are Senator Hillary Clinton (NY), Senator Russ Feingold (WI), Senator Joe Biden (DE), Senator Diane Feinstein (CA), former Vice President Al Gore (TN), former governor Howard Dean (VT), Senator John Breaux (LA), Senator Jay Rockefeller (WV), Senator Mary Landrieu (LA) and Senator Bill Nelson (FL). All of those candidates, however, have more glaring weaknesses, from extremely high unfavorable ratings (Clinton, Dean) to having run extremely poor campaigns for the Presidency in 2000 (Gore) to being largely politically unknown (of the rest).
Regardless of who the vice president is, the upcoming election is likely going to be an uphill fight for Kerry, despite national polling data which currently has Bush and Kerry on approximately even ground. It is important to keep in mind in the upcoming election that the Bush reelection team has barely opened their historically large war chest, while Kerry’s financial situation is significantly more precarious, with reports stating that his campaign already in debt following the nomination battle.
Furthermore, this election is not about national polling, rather
it is about the electoral college, which remains the same as it was
in 2000, when Gore won the popular vote, but lost the presidency.
In this election cycle, once again a handful of states shall decide
the next president. According to Zogby polling, those states are
Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon,
Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin, while the rest
are safely in either the red or blue columns already. With that in
mind, it is imperative that voters in those states make their voices
heard, regardless of which candidate they support in November. It
is they that shall decide where this country is headed.