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This Time, It’s Personal
NEWS ANALYSIS by Nachama Soloveichik
When Republican Senator Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois announced that he would
not be running for a second term in 2004, half the state of Illinois
considered running. Seriously. Fortunately for the good citizens of this
state, only 15 (give or take a couple) of them actually did. With so many
candidates, many with millions of dollars to burn, the primary election
promised to be entertaining at the very least.
Towards the end of February, two candidates distinguished themselves: The
multi-millionaire, Blair Hull demonstrated a lead among the Democrats with 27%
of the vote, with state Senator Barack Obama and state Comptroller Dan Hynes
trailing at 17% each. The suave Jack Ryan pulled ahead among the Republicans
with a cool 41% to Jim Oberwis’ 17%, Ryan’s closest competitor.
Hull enjoyed a week in the lead, and then things began to get downright
interesting. Hull struggled to shelve swirling rumors about his divorce,
including claims that he had hit his second wife, Brenda Sexton. Once the
divorce records were unsealed, colorful accounts did not help the Hull
campaign one bit. How do you spin this: “Blair threw a remote control across
the room and called me a ‘f------ c------.’” Things really got spicy when
Hull’s children and his first wife stepped up to the plate to defend him. Even
Sexton joined the fray, claiming that she now supported Hull’s candidacy and
that the two are “now friends.” Meanwhile, Hull, who had pledged to spend $20
million dollars of his own money on his senatorial bid, continued to flood the
media waves with another commercial every ten minutes. Illinois voters should
have voted for Hull just to keep things interesting.
Hull’s lead quickly evaporated, with Obama pulling ahead. Meanwhile, stories
about Ryan’s divorce with his actress, ex-wife Jeri Ryan, began to shadow the
Republican leader. Luckily for Ryan, his divorce did not even begin to
approach the level of Hull’s domestic drama, and while his campaign was thrown
into doubt for a while, the primary came soon enough on March 15 and closed
the matter.
The results of the Illinois primary were not entirely predictable. State
Senator Barack Obama surprised the political pundits with an overwhelming
victory, 53% of the Democratic vote, totaling 650,000 votes, while Jack Ryan
eked out a victory with 36%, or 234,000 Republican votes. With the rest of the
other characters out of the race, it was time for the serious campaigning to
begin.
Both candidates boast impressive portfolios. Obama is a Harvard law alum and
the first African-American editor of the Harvard Law Review, a civil rights
attorney, a constitutional law professor at the prestigious University of
Chicago, and an Illinois state senator. The Chicago Sun-Times and Tribune
showered Obama with praise, endorsing him as a “rising star” with a “proven
record of spirited, principled and effective leadership.” If that’s not
enough, he’s young, good looking and charismatic.
Jack Ryan’s story is just as eager to pull on the heart strings. One of six,
he grew up in a middle-class family in Wilmette, Illinois. He attended
Dartmouth, Harvard Law and Harvard Business School, after which he took a year
off to help refugees in Texas who had escaped from oppressive Communist
regimes in Central America. Ryan followed his altruistic hiatus with an
illustrious career at Goldman Sachs where he worked for 15 years. Three years
ago, he quit his high-paying investment job to teach at Hales Franciscan, a
Catholic high school on Chicago’s South Side, making a mere $20,000 a year
teaching underprivileged African American boys history. He too sports a
handsome face, good looks and a charming smile. Heck, who cares about the
issues? This is beginning to sound like a Mr. Illinois contest.
Luckily for voters, they won’t have to make their decision based on who has
better hair. Both Obama and Ryan come to the race with well-defined and easily
discernable positions on the major issues.
Unlike Ryan, who has little political experience to speak of, Obama has a
hefty political record accumulated over seven years in the Illinois Senate, as
Chairman of the Public Health and Welfare Committee and a member of the
Judiciary and Revenue Committees. This can work for him or against him. On the
one hand, Obama cannot be accused of lack of experience. His work on
education, health care, and civil liberties among other issues, demonstrates
that he is a substantive candidate with serious and consistent positions on a
variety of complex topics. Even those who do not agree with his positions
cannot deny that he is a capable politician.
On the other hand, it means that he has a record. The Ryan campaign is
attempting to use these positions against him, labeling Obama a “tax and spend
liberal,” and declaring the state Senator to the left of John Kerry, Ted
Kennedy and Hillary Clinton. In response, Obama is attempting to position
himself as a moderate Democrat, claiming that his political positions are
actually “closer to some of the moderate Republicans in the state, like Jim
Thompson and Jim Edgar,” both former Illinois governors. At the same time,
Obama is trying his hand at the same strategy, painting Ryan as an extreme
conservative, associated with Bush’s “radical agenda.”
Exaggerations aside, Obama is a liberal, just as Ryan is a conservative. The
differences between the two candidates are stark. On a host of hot-button
political issues—Iraq, abortion, taxes, school vouchers, and gay marriage—the
two candidates have endorsed predictable positions given their affiliation.
Obama has made no secret of his distaste for President Bush, his policies on
Iraq and the economy, claiming on his website that President Bush has done
little to jumpstart the economy and make the U.S. safer from terrorism. His
anti-Bush rhetoric is harsh: “A callous disregard for the nation’s working
families;” “short-sighted tax-cuts for the rich;” “empty rhetoric,” and so
forth. Obama has strategically aligned himself with the Democratic
presidential hopeful, Senator John Kerry from Massachusetts, appearing with
him at events in the Chicago area.
In the same vein, Jack Ryan appears to be a authentic conservative, supporting
the Bush tax-cut, the war in Iraq, school vouchers and opposing gay marriage
and abortion (except in the case of danger to the mother’s life, rape and
incest). Ryan too has strategically aligned himself with President Bush,
publicly declaring his support for the President’s invasion of Iraq and
denouncing Obama for his criticism of it. “My opponent,” said Ryan, “if he had
his choice, Saddam Hussein would still be in power . . . The world is a much
safer place because he’s gone.”
This election is important. With the Republicans holding the slimmest of
majorities in the Senate, a mere 51-49, its claim on power is precarious. The
Senate is up for grabs, and the Democrats are hungry for power. After their
astonishing defeat in 2002, the Democrats have demonstrated their
determination this time around, fielding solid candidates in toss-up races
around the country, Illinois included. Assuming for the moment that Bush wins
the election in November, a Democratic majority in the Senate will wreak its
revenge, stifling Bush’s conservative agenda. The political tension is certain
to come to a head over judicial appointments. President Bush has already faced
a tough time over lower level appointments, but with three Supreme Court
Justices over the age eighty, we can expect a showdown in the Senate. Bork’s
ghost lives on.
The outcome of the Senate race is important for another reason as well.
Political junkies will recall the Republican Party’s humiliating defeat in
Illinois in 2002. It lost the governorship and both houses in the General
Assembly at a time when Republicans around the country were scoring wins. A
win in November will give the Republican Party the credibility it sorely
desires.
Many political pundits have labeled the Illinois race a “toss-up.” Obama
though does have tradition in his favor. Illinois traditionally leans
Democratic, evidenced in Gore’s easy win in the state in 2000. True, the
retiring Senator Fitzgerald is a Republican, but when he was elected in 1998,
he was the first Republican in Illinois to win a Senate race in 20 years.
As far as predictions go, victory in Illinois will depend on a number of
factors. Whether or not Ryan will face revived rumors about his divorce
remains to be seen. So far, Obama has taken the gentlemanly position of
refusing to bring it up. While some may criticize Obama for not getting down
and dirty, such a tactic always runs the risk of hurting the candidate more
than it helps. Until now, Obama has presented himself as a “good guy”—a
generic characterization, but one which actually says a lot about the
candidate’s personality and character. Bringing up the divorce issue will only
tarnish Barack’s boy-scout image.
Much will also depend on the state of the presidential election. Since Obama
and Ryan have both aligned themselves with their party’s presidential nominee,
their fates may be inextricably tied to those of Kerry and Bush. A precipitous
decline in Bush’s popularity or a disaster in Iraq may be enough to cost Ryan
the election. In many ways, the Illinois race will be a referendum on Bush’s
war on terror.
The latest polls demonstrate a clear advantage for Obama, with a 19% lead in
the polls. Of course, the wise among us know that polls in April are not
always an accurate predictor of November results. What should one expect? At
the very least: Plenty of Bush-bashing, liberal-labeling, sparkling smiles,
stylish coifs, and a race to the finish line. |
