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Carson with the Fringe
on Top
NEWS ANALYSIS by Kevin McNeill
When Republican Sen. Don Nickles unexpectedly announced his retirement in
October, Democrats received some of the best news they’ve gotten all year.
After seeing no less than five Senate Democrats retire in states President
Bush carried in 2000 (all of them in the South), Republicans finally had their
turn to defend a seat they originally thought to be all but assured.
The first Republican to announce his candidacy was former Oklahoma City Mayor
Kirk Humphreys, who resigned to run for the Senate full-time. State
Corporation Commissioner Bob Anthony soon followed suit, as did former
Congressman Tom Coburn. Moderate Rep. Bard Carson is running on the Democratic
side, and is a virtual lock for the nomination.
Humphreys has the support of most of the Republican establishment, including
Nickles and Sen. Jim Inhofe. He also has raised the most money of any
Republican, with nearly $750,000 in the bank at the end of March, adding to
his initial status as the frontrunner.
His early support by the state’s top Republicans come as no surprise.
Humphreys was a popular mayor of Oklahoma’s largest city, bringing in hundreds
of millions in investments, and making Oklahoma City more attractive to new
businesses. His strong record with a large urban community is noteworthy,
since 35% of voters reside in either the Oklahoma City or Tulsa areas.
However, farmers and other rural residents seem to have a healthy distrust of
what they consider “big-city” politicians, who they feel do not share the
values and interests of their small communities. In many ways, a Humphreys-Carson
general election would be the opposite of many statewide races, since it would
be the Republican doing best in urban areas, with the Democrat hoping to win
over rural voters by large enough margins to offset losses in the cities.
Carson is heavily targeting rural Oklahomans, particularly in the western part
of the state, where Carson is still relatively unknown (his district covers
most of east Oklahoma). He has rolled out plans to stop the heavy population
loss of these areas, such as the creation of homestead accounts into which
individuals could contribute up to $2,500 a year and be matched by the federal
government, and a $5,000 tax credit for new home purchases.
As for Humphrey’s opponents, Bob Anthony has been the biggest question mark of
the election. Initially viewed as only a potential spoiler, he raised an
impressive $450,000 in the first quarter of 2004, putting to rest any notion
that he was not a serious contender. The only statewide officeholder of the
race, he had been re-elected Corporations Commissioner every six years dating
back to 1988, and started his campaign with considerable name recognition. In
his last campaign in 2000, he garnered over 770,000 votes, more than even
George W. Bush received when he was carrying the state with over 60% of the
vote.
However, the latest polls—keeping in mind that polling on primaries are
notoriously unreliable—have Coburn leading the Republican field, and in a
statistical tie with Carson in the general election. Coburn, who just entered
the race March 1, is a former family doctor, and represented the same district
in Congress that Brad Carson does today.
Retiring in 2000 to honor a term limits pledge, Coburn easily won re-election
in a district that Bill Clinton carried twice, and hadn’t elected a Republican
for over 70 years before Coburn’s first victory in 1994. He worked hard at his
constituent service, and continued to practice medicine after he was elected,
delivering over 250 babies at last count. In the House he compiled a solidly
conservative voting record, especially on social issues. However, he was
unafraid to defy the Republican leadership on several issues, particularly
health care, which earned him the support of many Democrats and Independents
in the district as well.
In 2001, redistricting combined most of the old Second District in northeast
Oklahoma with rural counties with deep Democratic traditions—making the
district safely Democratic. In 2002, Carson carried every single county and
won re-election by 74%. As further proof that the seat is no longer
competitive, the race to replace Carson in the House is an all Democrat
affair, as no serious Republican candidates entered the race.
Still, Carson has remained true to his centrist principles, even though the
Democratic lean to his district allows him the flexibility to move to the left
on many issues. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce presented him with their Spirit
of Enterprise award last year for his pro-business voting record. The NRA gave
him an “A” rating as well. He voted for President Bush’s tax cuts in 2001,
voted to ban partial birth abortions, and supported going to war in Iraq.
Yet members of Congress cast several hundred votes every year, and no doubt
Republicans will be pouring through his record to find votes that could be
used to characterize him as a liberal. Some votes will surely become issues in
the general election, such as his vote against President Bush’s tax cuts in
2003, or against the faith-based charities initiative.
Carson is smart, polished, and has uncanny political instincts. He is also a
member of the Cherokee Nation (which has a large presence in Oklahoma) and
over his career has worked hard to win over rural Oklahomans who normally
trend Republican. He is simply the best candidate Democrats could have put
forward. Without him, Democrats would simply have no shot of winning the seat.
Republicans, for their part, have three very capable candidates in the
race—any one of whom would be an even bet against Carson in the general
election. The biggest question is if they can avoid a costly runoff election,
despite the presence of three strong candidates. If they cannot, Republicans
will be pressed to quickly unify the party after a divisive primary, and help
their eventual nominee stay competitive financially. Carson already has $1.5
million in his treasury, more than double any Republican, and will have raised
plenty more by the time a Republican nominee emerges from the late runoff
(August 24), more than likely nearly broke.
Democrats have a registration edge in the state, and narrowly elected a
Democratic Governor in 2002. Still, it is hard to deny the Republican leanings
of Oklahoma, especially in federal elections. President Bush is likely to bury
John Kerry in the state this year. And while Carson may be able to fend off
the “liberal” label Republicans will try to pin on him, the fact remains that
his victory would help Democrats retake control of the Senate, and many
liberal Democrats would take over powerful committees as a result. This would
allow them to thwart most if not all of the President’s agenda should he win a
second term.
Hence the biggest obstacle centrist Democrats all across the country have to
overcome in order to win in so-called “red states”—their own party. To win,
Carson must draw clear distinctions between himself and his opponent, while at
the same time establishing that he agrees with many of the Republican’s more
popular views. He also must convince voters that he not only supports many
center-right positions, but that his election will not be a hindrance to
turning them into law. Not an easy task.
This will be one of the most competitive races in the nation, and both parties
will invest heavily to win it. The high quality of candidates on both sides
all but assures that this one will go down to the wire. |
