In a rare move of defiance to the Bush administration, this week, the Senate overwhelmingly passed a bill to ease travel restrictions upon Americans seeking to visit Cuba.
The Senate voted 58 to 33 in favor of the measure, which eliminates funding enforcement of the travel ban to the communist nation. The vote came two weeks after President Bush stated he would tighten the travel ban by telling officials to be more diligent in enforcement.
The House of Representatives passed a bill with virtually identical language to that passed by the Senate less than a month prior.
With the passage of the bill through both houses of Congress, the White House has threatened a veto, and it remains unclear if those in favor of easing the restrictions could muster the two-thirds majority needed to override a veto.
"For 40 years we've said 'sanctions,' and for 40 years it hasn't worked." said Sen. Mike Enzi, a Wyoming Republican, one the co-sponsors of the measure. Elaborating on his remark that, "Unilateral sanctions stop not just the flow of goods, but the flow of ideas," Enzi said, “Ideas of freedom and democracy are the keys to positive change in any nation."
The White House countered that looser travel restrictions on Cuba would provide an economic boon to Castro's government, which would allow them to better maintain their stranglehold over the country.
Speaking of this particular issue two weeks ago, President Bush defended the current rules, saying tourist dollars only go to the Cuban government which "pays the workers a pittance in worthless pesos and keeps the hard currency to prop up the dictator and his cronies…Illegal tourism perpetuates the misery of the Cuban people."
The White House has expressed confidence that Congress would not be able to find the required majority needed for an override vote, especially in the House.
The Cuban foreign minister, Felipe Pérez Roque, welcomed the passage of the bill, saying "It is another sign that both houses of Congress favor a political change toward Cuba." He tempered his enthusiasm by saying he expected the Bush administration to veto the bill. ''I don't know what new trick President Bush will use to avoid [change],'' Roque said. “I guess he could veto, ignoring the public opinion of his country to favor groups from the small and corrupt minority in Miami.''
The Senate last rejected an easing of travel restrictions in 1999,
by a vote of 43 to 55. But in an indication of how much the political
and policy pendulum has swung, 13 senators, who voted against easing
the curbs four years ago, switched sides and voted for it on Thursday.
Further complicating matters is that a veto of the Cuba bill would
also cut off a $90 billion Transportation and Treasury Department
bill.
The passage of the bill highlights a divide within the constituency of the Republican Party; between those from farming states which support lifting the bill, and Cuban-American leaders, who want to curb travel and trade to punish Mr. Castro.
The Treasury department estimates that some 160,000 Americans illegally visit Cuba every year, half of them Cuban-Americans visiting family members. Estimates hold that as many as 2.8 million Americans would visit Cuba annually if the ban is lifted, due to pent up demand.
The travel ban was first imposed by President Kennedy in 1963, just after the Cuban missile crisis. The ban was allowed to lapse by President Carter in 1977, but Ronald Reagan reinstated it in 1982. Violators could face criminal penalties of up to $250,000 and ten years in prison.
Much of the support for the ban comes from Cuban-Americans living in Florida, who believe that a hard-line stance is what is needed to combat a dictator like Castro. As result, they have largely supported Republican policies.
However, the President's speech with regard to tightening the travel ban came on the heels of increased criticism from Cuban-Americans in regards to the President's policies regarding Cuba. The criticism was based upon the President's intervention in Iraq.
Citing the invasion of Saddam Hussein's Iraq, many Cuban-Americans have been demanding a similar intervention of Fidel Castro's Cuba. A growing sentiment has been emerging that the Bush administration had forgotten to free the Cuban people from dictatorship, and instead has focused their military energy on more oil-rich targets.
Even a slight decrease in the president's popularity amongst Cuban-Americans could prove disastrous for the Bush administration when the 2004 election rolls around. In the 2000 election, 80% of Florida's 440,000 Cuban-Americans voted for Bush. The President won the state's 25 electoral votes by a margin of only 537 votes.
With the 2004 election shaping up along extremely thin margins for both parties, a loss in Florida could mean that Bush ends his reign as a one term president. Florida, which is now worth 27 electoral votes, or 10% of the total amount needed to win the presidency, is again a major battleground.
The renewed battle over Cuba however could be exactly what Bush has needed to solidify the votes of his Cuban-American constituency. By being proactive and defeating the Senate measure, the President could assuage the fears of many there who believe the administration has been too passive in regard to Castro.
If the President does manage to win the state, which he hopes a veto will allow him to do, the blame for his “getting jiggy with it” come inauguration day could end up at the doorstep of the Democratic supporters of the bill.
So while the U.S. Senate issued a strong statement against Bush's hard-line policy, the possibility of this backfiring and instead helping the administration secure reelection remains a serious one.
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