Following up President Bush’s surprise Thanksgiving visit to Iraq, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld went for the 2nd time in four months, with hopes of gauging progress towards Iraqi control of the country. Rumsfeld’s trip was based in the city of Kirkuk, the center of Iraq’s northern oil fields.
While the visit was unannounced for security reasons, Major Gen. Raymond Odierno commented that attacks on US forces have declined from 21 per day to six per day over the last three weeks. The progress was echoed by Rumsfeld, specifically with regards to the increase in the size of Iraqi security forces. In less than 6 months, they have gone from a size of zero, to over 140,000. The continued increase in the number of such troops has been central to the Bush administration’s plan for the safe withdrawal of US forces. Improvements were also made on controlling the flow of goods across the Iranian border, and finding terrorist cells operating out of Baghdad.
These developments, almost all positive, have been part of a continuing increase in stability in Iraq, and goodwill for US forces. While attacks and deaths continue, Paul Bremer, US chief civil administrator, commented that “opinion polls published in Iraq… 95 per cent of the Iraqi people, welcome the liberation of Iraq from the tyranny of Saddam.” Bremer was similarly positive about the continued presence of US troops, saying “A great majority of the Iraqi people still welcome the presence of the coalition force.”
Georgia:
Prior to going to Iraq, Rumsfeld was visiting the former Soviet republic of Georgia, to gauge progress towards elections there. Joining acting President Nino Burdzhanadze at a news conference, Rumsfeld emphasized that a “credible election process”, culminating in the January 4th elections, is “critical for stability in Georgia.”
Georgia, which has been a public ally in the Bush administration’s
fight against terrorism, as well as the war and occupation of Iraq,
has just undergone regime change. Burdzhanadze was installed as interim
President last month, shortly before Eduard Shevardnadze's resignation
from power due to protests over an election tainted by fraud.
Prior to a private meeting, Burdzhanadze expressed thanks for US support during
the process, calling America a “real friend.” She also commented
on lack of violence in the toppling of Shevardnadze, saying "We are proud
our people showed we are ready for democracy, and we are ready to fight for
democracy."
After the meeting, Rumsfeld commented on the situation in Georgia with regards to Russia. A major issue in the region has been Russia’ failure to honor the 1999 Istanbul accords, where Russia agreed to pull out most of their troops from the Georgia. Several deadlines been missed so far. "The United States agrees that Russia should fulfill its commitment under the Istanbul Accords to withdraw Russian forces from Georgia," Rumsfeld explained. “Russia agreed to the Istanbul Accords, which suggests to me there was unanimity. And that would suggest to me that it was probably a pretty good idea."
The Bush administration, along with House and Senate Republicans have become increasingly worried about the path Russia is taking in subverting democracy, both at home and abroad. Russia has been moving aggressively to reassert it’s dominance over the Caucasus and Central Asian republics, while arresting political opponents in Russia shortly before upcoming Duma elections.
Russia:
After years of negotiations, Russia signaled that it would not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, effectively killing the landmark environmental accords. Andrei Illarionov, the top economic adviser to President Vladimir Putin, said that Russia had decided not to ratify, due to both economic and environmental reasons.
Economically, ratifying the treaty has been seen as dangerous, especially giving the current Russian economic situations and plan. The Russian government has a goal of doubling the country’s GDP by 2010, has been on schedule for such growth.
Environmentally, it is becoming increasingly dubious that the Kyoto Protocol would have a significant effect on stopping the global warming process, despite the potentially devastating economic results. Nine of the ten speakers before the United Nations' World Climate Change Conference on its final day expressed doubt about the effectiveness of Kyoto, citing that the emissions it targets are only a small part of the overall problem.
Without the support of the Russian government, the Kyoto Protocol cannot pass, due to threshold requirements placed upon the treaty. Although the protocol has been approved by 120 countries, it was rejected by President George W. Bush in 2001. Failing to get U.S. approval, the only way to reach the required threshold for enactment was with Russian participation. Now that both the US and Russia have decided to hold out, the Protocol, as currently negotiated, is dead.
Israel:
With US backed roadmap to peace stalled after a series of terror attacks and Israeli reprisals, all sides have begun to consider new avenues for a settlement. They range from a new roadmap, to unilateral action by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
With negotiations ongoing in Cairo, Palestinian Prime Minister
Ahmed Qureia
arrived to call an end to all attacks in exchange for Israel also
stopping military incursions. So far, Palestinian militant groups
have refused a complete cease fire, while Qureia has been more optimistic.
The Israeli government has agreed to stop military actions if the
Palestinians stop their attacks, and take steps to dismantle the
groups responsible for them.
Meanwhile, progress is being made on the Geneva Accord, an unofficial peace plan created by former Israeli and Palestinian negotiators. Similar to the US roadmap, it is clearer in the requirements put on both parties in regards to actions taken for peace. The plan puts a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, and requires Israel to remove virtually all West Bank settlements. In exchange, Israel does not have to grant Palestinian refugees the right to return to Israel, and the Palestinian government will do everything possible to stop attacks on Israelis.
As the Geneva accord was being hammered out, Sharon had started to make vague statements about taking unilateral steps towards peace if the agreements fail. Sharon’s plan is rumored to include the dismantling of some, but not all Israeli settlements, and the creation of a national border along the separation barrier. On the heels of such plans being publicized, Vice Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stated that he believed peace talks are doomed, and that Israel should act on it’s own by pulling out of most of the West Bank, Gaza, and parts of Jerusalem.