In Beane We Trust
SPORTS by Konstantin Medvedovsky

Don't read too much into the numerical rankings. They're not random, but they're not hugely thought out either. The reason I'm doing them at all is because I suspect I'll end up with only one Tier 1 guy, and that's not enough differentiation.

I suspect I'm also going to have more of a focus on how a GM thinks, rather than results per say. There's too much variance in the day to day results of a baseball season in my opinion to really get a results oriented ranking that has much reliability. Essentially a long winded way of saying, the sample is too damn small on most guys.

Tier 1 - If your team hires him, you're thrilled with no questions at all (In GM, We Trust)

1. Billy Beane - Oak (1998-2006)

Billy is the best GM in baseball. If I'm starting a team, this is the direction I go. He's had the success, he's adapted, and he's shown he's not just a one trick pony.

Unfortunately, there's nobody else I can really feel comfortable putting in Tier 1 yet. Maybe I'm reading too much into the title of this category, but he's the only no questions asked guy I really have.

Tier 2 - If your team hires him, you're happy but there may be a question or two

2. Mark Shapiro - Cle (2002-2006)

3. Theo Epstein - Bos (2003-2006) (1 WS)

4. Larry Beinfest - Fla (2002-2006) (1 WS)

5. Terry Ryan - Min (1995-2006)

6. Dave Dombrowski - Det (2002-2006) also Mon (1988-1991) and Fla (1992-2001) (1 WS)

7. Brian Cashman - NYY (1998-2006) (3 WS)

8. John Scheurholz - Atl (1991-2006) also KC (1982-1990) (2 WS)

Honestly, I am more consistently impressed with the moves being made by Cleveland than just about anyone else, including Oakland. That said, they haven't gotten there yet, so I still have a question or two.

Theo. I'm very impressed with, but at the same time, I have a lingering question or two with regards to enough of the moves he's made (Renteria/Crisp/Mirabelli) that I can't say I don't have questions. He strikes me sometimes as being someone I'd follow into battle, and then sometimes as someone who is a bit too afraid to make a bold move. There may be internal ownership dynamics responsible for this, but that's that. I honestly suspect that he belongs in Tier 1, but it's too soon to say. Maybe in the aftermath of last offseason, we'll get a chance to see what he's really going on.

What Larry Beinfest has done is simply amazing. He did what I do in my Baseball Mogul games when I'm facing a bad team, except he did it in real life. Furthermore, his young talent worked out. The only reason he's not in Tier 1 is that I haven't yet seen his player evaluation at work for veterans, so I can't be sure there.

Terry Ryan, enough good has and will be said about him that I'll leave it to others to praise him. That praise is well deserved. That said, he makes enough moves like installing Tony Batista at 3B that I can't really move him into tier one. That, and the fact that for all his recent success, he had a pretty long run of mediocrity early on too. That can't be completely disregarded.

Dombrowski's work in Detroit has in some ways been a weaker version of what Beinfest has done in Florida. At the same time, we've got more experience with how he evaluates older players, and while I'm not over the moon with it, it's also strong enough, or at least it's worked out enough, that I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. The Gary Sheffield trade gave me real pause however.

Cashman may deserve to rate higher than this, but because of the Tampa faction issue, it's hard to tell exactly how much blame he carries for signings like Wright and Pavano. I suspect that the tales of it not being his fault were correct, but I'm not certain of it. An argument could be made that a better GM would have walked out under those circumstances. Who knows. He could deserve to rate above Epstein, or he could deserve to drop out of this tier altogether.

Scheurholz is going to be the guy I disagree with other people most on I suspect. I know he won forever, and yet, I just can't help but be unimpressed with his talent evaluation for nonprospects. Obviously he's built a good farm system, and Atlanta was more than that pitching staff - it was also made up of the rotating group of prospects which he brought in. At the same time, with the changing situation in Atlanta now, he's done a relatively poor job of coping with it, leading me to question how quickly they're going to be able to rebuild. He's dropped not because Atlanta didn't win the division, but because they didn't trade off at this year's deadline in large part.

Tier 3 - If your team hires him, you may be disappointed but you realize it could have been worse and he'll probably do a solid job even though you have reservations

9. Omar Minaya - NYM (2005-2006) also Mon (2002-2004)

9. Walt Jocketty - Stl (1995-2006) (1 WS)

11. Doug Melvin - Mil (2003-2006) also Tex (1995-2001)

12. Kevin Towers - SD (1996-2006)

13. Pat Gillick - Phl (2006) also Tor (1978-1994), Bal (1996-1998), Sea (2000-2003) (2 WS)

14. Bill Stoneman (2000-2006) (1 WS)

15. Kenny Williams - Chi AL (2002-2006) (1 WS)

16. JP Riccardi - Tor (2002-2006)

17. Brian Sabean - SF (1997-2006)

I probably like Omar than anyone else outside of New York does. He seems to follow the Keep It Simple Stupid format and by and large, that works. He gives big contracts to star players(Pedro, Wagner, Beltran) and star young talent(Pelfrey, Humber, Fernando Martinez), and you know what? That can work pretty well under the right circumstances. He keeps being associated with lots of dumb trade rumors, but sort of like Theo's ending up missing out on like Contreras, Pavano and Alfonzo, Minaya had dodged all those bullets as well. I'm not sold on his ability to build a pitching staff, and he's benefited from the AL-NL differential, having acquired lots of mediocre AL pitchers who have found new life. We'll see if he can continue to do this now that that cat is out of the bag. This sort of K.I.S.S approach sounds trivial, but lots of big to medium market GMs have shown they're incapable of doing even that much.

Walt Jocketty is sort of your everyday good GM. The weakness of the St. Louis farm keeps him out of the 2nd tier. It's in some ways unfair to have him in a group with Riccardi, but that's the price of having only four categories.

I don't really have a good feel for Doug Melvin, or how that organization runs. That's the result of being middle of the road in a division that doesn't get much attention. Looking back on the moves he's made however, I don't really see any debacles, and lots of small solid moves. I think he's got a lot in common with Jocketty actually.

Towers, similar to Jocketty and Melvin, strikes me as just a solid baseball mind all around. He's not going to go on a dynastic run in a competitive division, but he's also not going to run your team into the group. Matt Bush remains a strike against him.

If I were to have another tier, it would start here. Gillick has a long track record of success, but at the same time, his recent moves have been pretty mediocre. I could give him the benefit of the doubt, but as I said, there's a lot of luck in this game, so I'm not inclined to do so here.

Stoneman makes solid choices in some case, but pretty mediocre ones in other cases. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Gillick without an equal history of success.

Another minibreak here, where Kenny Williams ends the group of generic "above average" GMs, and begins something else entirely. Long story short, I'm not impressed, even with 2005. He's had an awful lot of things break his way that I'm just not convinced he saw coming or was responsible for. A more results oriented ranking would give him more credit I imagine.

Riccardi has now had an lot of time to build a winner, and a not insignificant budget to rebuild with, and he's not gotten far. Furthermore, it hasn't just been bad luck or anything, it's been largely the result of a failure of young player development it seems. He's in a tough division, but he hasn't even seemed to have a coherent strategy for breaking through, Generally, if you're finishing 3rd every year, then you're spending too much effort to win in the short term, not enough to win in the long term. 80-85 wins won't cut it in the AL East.

There is a method to Sabean's madness, but not enough to pull him ahead of Riccardi in my opinion. He's in a weak division, and he was blessed with having Bonds in his golden years, which helped obscure a lot of mediocre moves he made. At the same time, he's not quite so bad that I want to drop him to the fourth tier. That might be a mistake, but he has done a good job finding veterans who aren't going to completely bottom out on him either.

Tier 5 - Too soon to say

18. Josh Byrnes - AZ (2006)

19. Andrew Friedman - Tampa (2006)

20. Ned Colletti - LA (2006)

21. Dayton Moore - KC (2006)

22. Tim Purpura - Hou (2005-2006)

23. Jon Daniels - Tex (2006)

24. Wayne Krivsky - Cin (2006)

In due time, a lot of these guys will rank higher than their Tier 3 counterparts, but that's for another day.

Byrnes is here somewhat on reputation, somewhat on personal experience(I've met him twice, and he struck me as a very impressive mind), and somewhat based on what he's done so far in AZ. Chris Young is obviously the major coup, and I suspect there will be more to come. With more time, he has a good shot to vault into the top half of Tier 2.

There's a gap here actually between Byrnes and Friedman. Already, it seems likely to me that Byrnes is a significantly stronger GM than Friedman is. Yes Tampa Bay dealt away some of the veterans, but they didn't get great returns for them it seems. The poor handling of the Upton situation also doesn't help.

Colletti is hard to get a read on because of how much of a stamp that Depodesta left on the Dodgers in a short period. So far none of him moves have been trainwrecks, but he hasn't done much positive either that I can see. Sort of the generic MO of a too soon to tell guy.

Moore has had less time than even the other guys on this list, so his ranking is almost entirely reputation from Atlanta. That's why you shouldn't read too much into these numerical rankings. I mainly don't have anything bad to say about him.

Purpura I know less about than any other GM in baseball probably, and he's been in an awkward situation out there in Houston with the annual Roger Clemens sagas, preventing him from really making a mark on the team. What he has done however hasn't struck me awful.

Daniels has been involved in a lot of deals, few of them ones that I've been too impressed with unfortunately. That's all I can say for now.

Look, I know all about Austin Kearn' shortcomings. That move was still a mistake. Given that we don't know much about him yet, and what we do know isn't positive, Krivsky rates last among these guys.

Tier 4 - If your team hires him, then at least you can continue to prove on the interweb that you're smarter than your team's GM

25. Jim Hendry - Chi NL (2002-2006)

26. Dan O'Dowd - Col (2000-2006)

27 .Bill Bavasi - Sea (2004-2006) also Ana (1994-1999)

28. Jim Flanagan - Bal (2003-2006)

29. Jim Bowden - Was (2005-2006) also Cin (1993-2003)

30. Dave Littlefield - Pit (2002-2006)

Hendry bears the Dusty Baker cross, and it's heavy one. He's made some good moves though, and that's more than I can say for most guys on this list.

O'Dowd is an impossible situation out there in Colorado, or so he would have us believe. I don't know, I'm just not convinced that it's that impossible to build a winner at altitude, but what do I know - I've never done it. I like him more than the others on this list for a willingness to take risks.

Bavasi is not a good GM. That's all I got.

Flanagan took over and got what was maybe the worst organization in baseball. A few years later, some improvements have been made, but considering their budget, not nearly enough. He's hamstrung by Angelos we're told, but still, it's a mediocre team, with a mediocre farm, with a sizable budget.

Bowden might be slightly underrated here, but he ran the Reds so poorly for so long that I'm not going to give him the benefit of the doubt based on a couple decent moves out in Washington. Who knows, he could reasonable rise into tier 3 in time. Minaya probably would have rated down here after a year with the Mets, so maybe disregarding the previous organization is fair.

Littlefield displays all the characteristics of a bad GM. He has yet to commit to a rebuilding strategy, he doesn't have a coherent drafting or player development strategy, instead flipping around from year to year. He's not in a great spot obviously, but there is a sufficient base of talent in Pittsburgh that this could be turned around more quickly than he seems to have any intention of doing.

That's all folks.

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